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The Fed Held Rates in October. Here's What That Means for Your Mortgage.

By Sandy Siddons Published 2 min read

The Fed left rates alone this week, but most signs point to a hike in December. Mortgage rates actually dipped. Here's what buyers and sellers in Central Indiana should know.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates where they were on Wednesday. Its target range stays at 3.75% to 4%, after a quarter-point increase in September.

The vote wasn’t unanimous, though. Two of the twelve voting members wanted to raise rates again. And the markets now expect the Fed to do exactly that in December.

What the Fed said

Inflation is the problem. Prices rose 3.7% over the past year as of September, up from 3.4% in August, and higher oil prices are a big part of that. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said plainly that inflation “remains elevated” and the Fed hasn’t finished the job.

At the same time, the job market is cooling. Only 29,000 jobs were added in September, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. That’s part of why the Fed chose to wait this month instead of raising again.

Will rates go up in December?

Probably. As of Thursday, futures markets put the odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting at about 80%. Warsh didn’t commit to anything, but he didn’t push back on the idea either.

That could change. A soft jobs report or a drop in oil prices before December would give the Fed reason to wait again.

What about mortgage rates?

Here’s the part that surprises people. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. Mortgage rates follow the bond market, which tends to move ahead of the Fed, based on what investors expect.

So even with a likely hike on the way, mortgage rates actually dipped this week. The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.24% on Thursday, down from 7.32% the week before and the lowest it’s been this month, according to Freddie Mac. That’s still a full point higher than a year ago, when it was 6.17%.

What it means for you

If you’re buying, don’t try to time the Fed. A lot of the expected December hike is already built into today’s rates. What matters more is the rate you can lock when you find the right home. Talk to your lender about a rate lock and what it costs to extend one if your closing date moves. If rates fall later, refinancing is an option. The home you want may not be available later.

If you’re selling, higher rates mean buyers are more careful about price. But as our September market report showed, supply is still tight across Hamilton County, and well-priced homes are selling quickly. Pricing it right from day one matters more than ever.

If you’re thinking about refinancing, today’s rates probably aren’t your moment unless your current rate is above 8%. Keep an eye on things through the winter.

I’ll post another update after the December 9 meeting.

Want to talk through your numbers?

Every situation is different. If you’d like to talk through what today’s rates mean for your budget, or what your home might sell for in this market, let’s set up a quick call. No cost, no pressure.

Sandy Siddons, REALTOR®/Broker, F.C. Tucker Company

Mortgage rates are Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey averages for the week of October 29, 2026. Rate expectations are from CME FedWatch as of October 29, 2026, and can change quickly. This post is general information, not financial or lending advice. Talk to a licensed lender about your own rate and options.

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